Jim Stillman
NevarPoll of Young Americans encouraging
July 22nd 2007 18:58
The New York Times, CBS News and MTV conducted a poll of young (ages 17-29) adults over the period June 15-23, 2007, dealing with the respondents’ political opinions and viewpoints regarding the present and probable future conditions in this country and their personal viewpoints as to their individual futures.
In many respects, the results, when compared with the opinions of all adults, were to be expected; in other respects, in my opinion, the results are a surprise.
Younger Americans believe they will be a force in the upcoming 2008 election: nearly eight in ten think their generation will have a more or less substantial impact on whom the next president will be. When compared with the viewpoints of all adults, young Americans are more likely than the general public to favor a government-run universal health care insurance system, an open-door policy on immigration and the legalization of gay marriage.
The poll offers a snapshot of a group whose energy and idealism have always been as alluring to politicians as its scattered focus and shifting interests have been frustrating. It found that substantially more Americans ages 17 to 29 than four years ago are paying attention to the presidential race. But they appeared to be really familiar with only two of the candidates, Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton, both Democrats.
It is interesting to compare the issues on which younger voters differ with all adults.
For example, when asked which would be better for the country, having one health insurance program covering all Americans, administered by the government and taxpayer supported or keeping the present system where people obtain health insurance through private employers or private insurance companies and some people have no coverage, 62% of the younger group chose the former as opposed to 47% of adults generally. I would like to think that the choice was made with the realization that people with no insurance spend more time in hospital ER’s and the taxpayers pick up the bill, directly or indirectly.
As to gay couples being allowed to form marriages or civil unions of some kind, 68% of the young group, as opposed to 60% of all adults answered positively. This result surprised me I would have thought the difference would be greater.
In many areas, the young adults had opinions close to those of adults generally. The importance of addressing global warming was deemed “serious” by 90% of each group. Abortion being generally available to those who want it appealed to 38% of each group, the availability of abortions but under stricter limits was chosen by an identical amount.
The younger potential voters were asked if “most people they know” would vote for a presidential candidate who had smoked marijuana (68% said, yes”), is African-American (66% affirmative), a woman (59% would vote for her). On the other hand, the younger people felt that only 28% would vote for a Mormon, 25% would vote for a gay or lesbian and 22% would favor someone who had used cocaine in the past (Mitt Romney is, of course, Mormon; Senator Obama has “suggested” that he tried cocaine as a young man.)
Some parts of the poll are both interesting and encouraging.
By a 52% to 36% majority, young Americans say that Democrats, rather than Republicans, come closer to sharing their moral values; 58% said they had a favorable view of the Democratic Party, and 38 percent said they had a favorable view of Republicans.
Asked if they were enthusiastic about any of the candidates running for president, 18% percent named Senator Obama and 17% percent named Senator Clinton. Those two were followed by Rudolph W. Giuliani, a Republican, who was named by just 4% of the respondents. It is, of course, far too early to assign too much importance to these choices.
That a significant number of respondents said they were enthusiastic about just two of the candidates — Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton — to a certain extent reflects that both candidates have been the subject of a huge amount of national attention and have presented the country with historic candidacies. Mr. Obama would be the first black president and Mrs. Clinton the first woman. Other candidates could begin drawing attention from this group as the campaign takes a higher platform.
More important, though, at least for Senators Obama and Clinton, is the impression this group has of them. In the poll, 43% of respondents said they held an unfavorable view of Mrs. Clinton, a number that reflects the tide of resistance she faces nationwide. By contrast, only 19 percent said they had an unfavorable view of Mr. Obama. But, as I have noted, it’s early.
The survey also found that 42% of young Americans thought it was likely or very likely that the nation would reinstate a military draft over the next few years — and two-thirds said they thought the Republican Party was more likely to do so. The vast majority (87%) of respondents said they opposed a draft.
But when it came to the war, young Americans were more optimistic about the outcome than was the population as whole.
Fifty-one percent said the United States was very or somewhat likely to succeed in Iraq, compared with 45 percent among all adults. Contrary to conventional wisdom, younger Americans have historically been more likely than the population as a whole to be supportive of what a president is doing in a time of war, as they were in Korea and Vietnam, polls have shown. Researching this posting and reading of polls conducted in the 1950’s and 1960’s was a shock to me and my general opinions!
The poll suggests that younger Americans, like most of us, are conflicted in their view of the country. Many have a bleak view about their own future and the direction the country is heading: 70% said the country was on the wrong track, while 48 percent said they feared that their generation would be worse off than their parents’. But the survey also found that this generation of Americans is not cynical: 77% said they thought the votes of their generation would have a great bearing on who became the next president.
By any measure, the poll suggests that young Americans are anything but apathetic about the presidential election. Fifty-eight percent said they were paying attention to the campaign. By contrast, at this point in the 2004 presidential campaign, 35% of 18-to-29-year-olds said they were paying a lot or some attention to the campaign.
Over the last half century, the youth vote has more often than not gone with the Democratic candidate for president, though with some notable exceptions. In 1984, Ronald Reagan won his second term as president by capturing 59% of the youth vote, according to exit polls, and President George Bush (41) won in 1988 with 52 percent of that vote. This age group, however, has supported Democratic presidential candidates in every election since.
The percentage of young voters who identified themselves as Republican grew steadily during the Reagan administration, and reached a high of 37 percent in 1989. That number has declined ever since, and is now at 25 percent.
There is much about which to be encouraged. The younger group feel that the 2008 election is one of the most important elections in their lifetimes (65%), and that they, as a group, will have a substantial influence on the outcome of the election (77%).
The young voters appear interested, informed and anxious to play a part in our – and their – future.
In many respects, the results, when compared with the opinions of all adults, were to be expected; in other respects, in my opinion, the results are a surprise.
Younger Americans believe they will be a force in the upcoming 2008 election: nearly eight in ten think their generation will have a more or less substantial impact on whom the next president will be. When compared with the viewpoints of all adults, young Americans are more likely than the general public to favor a government-run universal health care insurance system, an open-door policy on immigration and the legalization of gay marriage.
The poll offers a snapshot of a group whose energy and idealism have always been as alluring to politicians as its scattered focus and shifting interests have been frustrating. It found that substantially more Americans ages 17 to 29 than four years ago are paying attention to the presidential race. But they appeared to be really familiar with only two of the candidates, Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton, both Democrats.
It is interesting to compare the issues on which younger voters differ with all adults.
For example, when asked which would be better for the country, having one health insurance program covering all Americans, administered by the government and taxpayer supported or keeping the present system where people obtain health insurance through private employers or private insurance companies and some people have no coverage, 62% of the younger group chose the former as opposed to 47% of adults generally. I would like to think that the choice was made with the realization that people with no insurance spend more time in hospital ER’s and the taxpayers pick up the bill, directly or indirectly.
As to gay couples being allowed to form marriages or civil unions of some kind, 68% of the young group, as opposed to 60% of all adults answered positively. This result surprised me I would have thought the difference would be greater.
In many areas, the young adults had opinions close to those of adults generally. The importance of addressing global warming was deemed “serious” by 90% of each group. Abortion being generally available to those who want it appealed to 38% of each group, the availability of abortions but under stricter limits was chosen by an identical amount.
The younger potential voters were asked if “most people they know” would vote for a presidential candidate who had smoked marijuana (68% said, yes”), is African-American (66% affirmative), a woman (59% would vote for her). On the other hand, the younger people felt that only 28% would vote for a Mormon, 25% would vote for a gay or lesbian and 22% would favor someone who had used cocaine in the past (Mitt Romney is, of course, Mormon; Senator Obama has “suggested” that he tried cocaine as a young man.)
Some parts of the poll are both interesting and encouraging.
By a 52% to 36% majority, young Americans say that Democrats, rather than Republicans, come closer to sharing their moral values; 58% said they had a favorable view of the Democratic Party, and 38 percent said they had a favorable view of Republicans.
Asked if they were enthusiastic about any of the candidates running for president, 18% percent named Senator Obama and 17% percent named Senator Clinton. Those two were followed by Rudolph W. Giuliani, a Republican, who was named by just 4% of the respondents. It is, of course, far too early to assign too much importance to these choices.
That a significant number of respondents said they were enthusiastic about just two of the candidates — Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton — to a certain extent reflects that both candidates have been the subject of a huge amount of national attention and have presented the country with historic candidacies. Mr. Obama would be the first black president and Mrs. Clinton the first woman. Other candidates could begin drawing attention from this group as the campaign takes a higher platform.
More important, though, at least for Senators Obama and Clinton, is the impression this group has of them. In the poll, 43% of respondents said they held an unfavorable view of Mrs. Clinton, a number that reflects the tide of resistance she faces nationwide. By contrast, only 19 percent said they had an unfavorable view of Mr. Obama. But, as I have noted, it’s early.
The survey also found that 42% of young Americans thought it was likely or very likely that the nation would reinstate a military draft over the next few years — and two-thirds said they thought the Republican Party was more likely to do so. The vast majority (87%) of respondents said they opposed a draft.
But when it came to the war, young Americans were more optimistic about the outcome than was the population as whole.
Fifty-one percent said the United States was very or somewhat likely to succeed in Iraq, compared with 45 percent among all adults. Contrary to conventional wisdom, younger Americans have historically been more likely than the population as a whole to be supportive of what a president is doing in a time of war, as they were in Korea and Vietnam, polls have shown. Researching this posting and reading of polls conducted in the 1950’s and 1960’s was a shock to me and my general opinions!
The poll suggests that younger Americans, like most of us, are conflicted in their view of the country. Many have a bleak view about their own future and the direction the country is heading: 70% said the country was on the wrong track, while 48 percent said they feared that their generation would be worse off than their parents’. But the survey also found that this generation of Americans is not cynical: 77% said they thought the votes of their generation would have a great bearing on who became the next president.
By any measure, the poll suggests that young Americans are anything but apathetic about the presidential election. Fifty-eight percent said they were paying attention to the campaign. By contrast, at this point in the 2004 presidential campaign, 35% of 18-to-29-year-olds said they were paying a lot or some attention to the campaign.
Over the last half century, the youth vote has more often than not gone with the Democratic candidate for president, though with some notable exceptions. In 1984, Ronald Reagan won his second term as president by capturing 59% of the youth vote, according to exit polls, and President George Bush (41) won in 1988 with 52 percent of that vote. This age group, however, has supported Democratic presidential candidates in every election since.
The percentage of young voters who identified themselves as Republican grew steadily during the Reagan administration, and reached a high of 37 percent in 1989. That number has declined ever since, and is now at 25 percent.
There is much about which to be encouraged. The younger group feel that the 2008 election is one of the most important elections in their lifetimes (65%), and that they, as a group, will have a substantial influence on the outcome of the election (77%).
The young voters appear interested, informed and anxious to play a part in our – and their – future.
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Comment by S.L. Bradish
Comment by Jeff Musall
Comment by PopulistConservative
Angry Electorate
As far as what this portends for the long term, I wouldn't read too much into it. I was ultra-liberal in college and now I'm ultra-conservative (although disgruntled with the Repubs). Also, it's hard for anyone not to be disgusted with the Republicans' rule of late. Furthermore, remember how the saying goes:
"If you're not Liberal when you're 25, you have no heart. If you're not Conservative when you're 35, you have no brain."